Blab Politics
Trump Administration Spurs Natural Gas Boom as AI Drives Demand, EIA Forecasts 66 GW of New Capacity by 2030
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a new forecast in early 2025 that projects 66 gigawatts (GW) of new natural‑gas‑fired power plant capacity to be built between 2026 and 2030. The figure is more than double the 23 GW that the agency had projected at the start of 2025. The jump is tied to two factors that have intensified in the Trump administration: a shift in federal energy policy that eases restrictions on gas plants and a surge in artificial‑intelligence (AI) activity that is driving demand for electricity.
The EIA’s updated outlook is part of the agency’s Annual Energy Outlook 2026, which examines medium‑ and long‑term scenarios for U.S. energy supply, demand, and policy. The new forecast is the most recent update to the 2025 outlook and reflects changes in the regulatory environment that began in the first 18 months of President Donald Trump’s second term.
A key element of the policy shift is the elimination of carbon‑dioxide regulations for new gas‑fired power plants. According to the Trump administration’s proposals, the federal government is removing the requirement that new plants meet the carbon‑dioxide limits that were part of the Clean Power Plan and other climate rules. The move is part of a broader set of rollbacks that include the removal of subsidies for renewable‑energy projects and the repeal of the Endangerment Finding for greenhouse gases.
The rise in natural‑gas demand is also linked to the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure. A recent article in OilPrice.com notes that more than one‑third of the new capacity is expected to power data centers on site, and that many additional projects are planned to meet an anticipated increase in energy demand from AI. The article cites the Global Oil and Gas Plant Tracker, which tracks new plant construction worldwide. AI companies are building large data centers that require steady, high‑capacity power supplies, and natural gas is often chosen for its reliability and lower carbon intensity compared to coal.
The EIA’s forecast does not specify the geographic distribution of the new plants, but the agency’s data indicate that the U.S. has a growing need for dispatchable power to balance variable renewable sources such as wind and solar. Natural‑gas plants can ramp up quickly to meet peak demand, a feature that is increasingly valuable as the grid incorporates more intermittent renewable generation.
The policy changes have drawn attention from both industry and environmental groups. Energy analysts point out that the removal of carbon‑dioxide limits could accelerate the construction of new gas plants, while environmental advocates warn that the increase in gas capacity could undermine efforts to reduce greenhouse‑gas emissions. The EIA’s own analysis notes that natural‑gas plants emit less carbon than coal but still contribute to the U.S. total emissions.
The Trump administration’s approach to energy policy is consistent with its broader “America First” agenda, which has prioritized domestic fossil‑fuel development and reduced federal oversight of environmental regulations. The administration’s rollbacks include the removal of subsidies for renewable‑energy projects, the repeal of the Clean Power Plan, and the elimination of the Endangerment Finding that had underpinned many climate‑related rules.
The new EIA forecast reflects the intersection of policy and technology. The expansion of AI infrastructure is creating a new demand curve for electricity, while the Trump administration’s regulatory changes are making it easier for developers to build gas plants. The combined effect is a projected 66 GW of new natural‑gas capacity over the next five years, a figure that represents a significant shift in the U.S. energy landscape.
The next steps for the industry will involve permitting, financing, and construction of the new plants. The federal government’s regulatory framework will continue to shape the pace of development, and the EIA will update its outlook as new data become available. The forecast underscores the importance of monitoring how policy decisions and emerging technologies influence the U.S. energy mix.
The EIA’s updated outlook is part of the agency’s Annual Energy Outlook 2026, which examines medium‑ and long‑term scenarios for U.S. energy supply, demand, and policy. The new forecast is the most recent update to the 2025 outlook and reflects changes in the regulatory environment that began in the first 18 months of President Donald Trump’s second term.
A key element of the policy shift is the elimination of carbon‑dioxide regulations for new gas‑fired power plants. According to the Trump administration’s proposals, the federal government is removing the requirement that new plants meet the carbon‑dioxide limits that were part of the Clean Power Plan and other climate rules. The move is part of a broader set of rollbacks that include the removal of subsidies for renewable‑energy projects and the repeal of the Endangerment Finding for greenhouse gases.
The rise in natural‑gas demand is also linked to the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure. A recent article in OilPrice.com notes that more than one‑third of the new capacity is expected to power data centers on site, and that many additional projects are planned to meet an anticipated increase in energy demand from AI. The article cites the Global Oil and Gas Plant Tracker, which tracks new plant construction worldwide. AI companies are building large data centers that require steady, high‑capacity power supplies, and natural gas is often chosen for its reliability and lower carbon intensity compared to coal.
The EIA’s forecast does not specify the geographic distribution of the new plants, but the agency’s data indicate that the U.S. has a growing need for dispatchable power to balance variable renewable sources such as wind and solar. Natural‑gas plants can ramp up quickly to meet peak demand, a feature that is increasingly valuable as the grid incorporates more intermittent renewable generation.
The policy changes have drawn attention from both industry and environmental groups. Energy analysts point out that the removal of carbon‑dioxide limits could accelerate the construction of new gas plants, while environmental advocates warn that the increase in gas capacity could undermine efforts to reduce greenhouse‑gas emissions. The EIA’s own analysis notes that natural‑gas plants emit less carbon than coal but still contribute to the U.S. total emissions.
The Trump administration’s approach to energy policy is consistent with its broader “America First” agenda, which has prioritized domestic fossil‑fuel development and reduced federal oversight of environmental regulations. The administration’s rollbacks include the removal of subsidies for renewable‑energy projects, the repeal of the Clean Power Plan, and the elimination of the Endangerment Finding that had underpinned many climate‑related rules.
The new EIA forecast reflects the intersection of policy and technology. The expansion of AI infrastructure is creating a new demand curve for electricity, while the Trump administration’s regulatory changes are making it easier for developers to build gas plants. The combined effect is a projected 66 GW of new natural‑gas capacity over the next five years, a figure that represents a significant shift in the U.S. energy landscape.
The next steps for the industry will involve permitting, financing, and construction of the new plants. The federal government’s regulatory framework will continue to shape the pace of development, and the EIA will update its outlook as new data become available. The forecast underscores the importance of monitoring how policy decisions and emerging technologies influence the U.S. energy mix.
